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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Name: Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Vol

$19.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	88%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$19.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (57 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.77)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $474
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $403
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $378
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $486
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $437
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $435
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $427
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $473
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $485
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $491
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $438
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $464
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $452
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $417
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $485
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $437
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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