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NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?	Kalshi	95%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?	Kalshi	6%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 35% and 40%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 20% and 25%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 15% and 20%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Jun 17, 2026 If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Lander minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Lander if Brad Lander wins, or the candi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 17, 2026

If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Brad Lander minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Brad Lander if Brad Lander wins, or the candi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within 45% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 35% and 40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 20% and 25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 15% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within 30% to 35%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?

If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within 25% to 30%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?

If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within 45% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?

If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For p

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?

If the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary falls within 40% to 45%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

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NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

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Events (1)

NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Markets (10)

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?

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Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NY-10 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 30% and 35%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 25% and 30%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be above 45%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?

Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 40% and 45%?

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