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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?

Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?
Vol

PM $10.7K

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Events

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is November 30 at 58.5%.

Polymarket

  1. November 3058.5%
  2. October 3111.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $10.7K

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

PM $126.5K
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes 97.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 27, 2026?Yes 1.1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 30, 2026?Yes 0.9%
+9 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

PM $305.3K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes 27.9%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

PM $1.66M
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes 21.5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?Yes 11%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes 2.1%
+1 moreNext deadline Oct 24, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

PM $112.8K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Yes 31.2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes 30%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes 29.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

PM $313.5K
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes 96%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?Yes 2.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?Yes 1.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Oct 25, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Next Gemini Pro model release

Next Gemini Pro model release

K 60.1K contracts
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?Yes 8%
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 16, 2026?Yes 6.5%
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026?Yes 3.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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