This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?

Name: OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?
End: 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.15K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?

Vol

$2.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?	Poly	47%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?	Poly	32%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?	Poly	9%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in May?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$2.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 11, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026

The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is schedule"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.80)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $278
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $365
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $786
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $718
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics