GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

South Dakota Senate Election Margin of Victory

Name: South Dakota Senate Election Margin of Victory
End: 2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.17K

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South Dakota Senate Election Margin of Victory

Vol

$3.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $3.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 25%-30%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 25%-30%?	Poly	14%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 20%-25%?	Poly	14%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 15%-20%?	Poly	14%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 10%-15%?	Poly	10%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 35%-40%?	Poly	10%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 30%-35%?	Poly	7%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 40%-45%?	Poly	6%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 0%-10%?	Poly	4%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 45% or more?	Poly	4%
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$3.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 South Dakota Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Dakota Senate Election Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 South Dakota Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 South Dakota Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 45% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $85
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 40%-45%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $85
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 35%-40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 30%-35%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $155
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 25%-30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $344
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 20%-25%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $711
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 15%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 10%-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $136
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 0%-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $224
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics