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GroupPOLYMARKET

Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 13?

Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 13?
Vol

PM $19.4K

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Events

1

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Markets

11

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 20°C at 44%.

Polymarket

  1. 20°C44%
  2. 21°C29.3%
  3. 19°C17.5%
  4. 22°C6.5%
  5. 18°C3.6%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $19.4K

Reported volume · provider units

11

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) on 13 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=ZSPD&format=raw&date=2026-11-13T19:00:00Z&hours=30

Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract resolves to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) on 13 November 2026 [1]. Only routine METAR observations count. Reports beginning with SPECI are excluded [1]. The qualifying value is taken from the hourly temperature remark, and values are rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with exact halves rounded up [1]. For example, 16.5°C counts as 17°C [1].

The rules also set fallback sources. If the Aviation Weather Center has published no usable routine observation by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has enough data, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also allow up to seven calendar days for correcting clearly erroneous data [1].

The provider lists an end time of 12:00 UTC on 13 November 2026 [1]. That field is not the same as the resolution rules, which tie resolution to the first METAR issued on the following day or to 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 09:00 UTC on 12 November 2026 and retrieved at 09:23 UTC that day [1]. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes. The event contains eleven bracket markets, all included in the sample, with no partial sampling flagged [1].

The highest Yes price is for 20°C, at 0.45 [1]. The next highest are 19°C at 0.345 and 21°C at 0.1175 [1]. Brackets at 18°C (0.09), 22°C (0.0235), 17°C (0.013), 16°C (0.0035), 23°C or higher (0.003), and 15°C, 14°C, and 13°C or below (each 0.0005) make up the rest [1].

The Yes prices across all eleven brackets sum to roughly 1.05. Because the sum exceeds 1, these figures should be read as quoted prices in one snapshot, not as normalized or verified probabilities. Prices are not executable quotes, and the saved data does not include volume or liquidity figures that would support a trading conclusion.

What remains uncertain

The saved data does not explain why prices sit where they do, and this summary does not attempt to. The sample includes all saved markets for this provider event, but the provider's own warning states that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Lower-priced brackets should not be treated as a complete picture of the field.

Because the contracts close and resolve on the rules above, a reader should check the current resolution rules and listed times directly before drawing any conclusion. Differences between these brackets and any other contract should be compared on their own wording, not merged into a single average.

References

  1. Polymarket: Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 13?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTC

Overview

This event asks which temperature range will contain the highest temperature reported at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) on 13 November 2026 [1]. Each market in the event covers a range stated in whole degrees Celsius, and the saved event includes 11 such markets [1]. The contract is a rules-based weather question, so its wording determines which report counts and how a value becomes a bracket. Only routine METAR observations count. Reports labeled SPECI are special observations and are excluded [1]. The qualifying value is normally the hourly temperature remark in a routine report, which begins with the letter T followed by eight digits. The first digit gives the sign, the next three give the temperature in tenths of a degree Celsius, and the rest (the dew point) is not used [1]. If a routine observation lacks that remark, the temperature group in the body of the report governs instead, given in whole degrees. Observations reporting no temperature in either place are disregarded [1]. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, and a value ending in exactly half is rounded up. That whole-degree value then determines the bracket. The rules give examples, such as 13.9 degrees counting as 14 degrees and negative 8.5 degrees counting as negative 8 degrees [1]. An observation counts when its timestamp, converted to Shanghai local time including any daylight-saving shift, falls on the observation date [1]. The market is set to resolve when the first routine METAR for the following day is issued, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature observation for the date by that deadline, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has published enough data by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Corrected reports marked COR count as long as the resolution source shows them, and changes are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1]. If a source publishes clearly erroneous data from a technical or operational error, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days so the source can publish a correction. If no correction appears, Polymarket may issue a Clarification [1]. The rules list an end time of 12:00 UTC on 13 November 2026 as a provider field [1]. That date is part of the contract's structure and does not announce when a specific event will occur, and resolution follows the procedures above.

Why It Matters

The contract measures one observed daily high at one named airport station, not a citywide or general climate measure [1]. Because the reporting rules specify which report types count, how temperatures are read and rounded, and which fallback source applies, the bracket that resolves depends on those details rather than on general weather descriptions. General reference material describes Shanghai as a large municipality on the Yangtze estuary [3], but that background does not determine any market outcome. The contract's practical meaning is limited to the routine station reports and the rules described above [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

Which temperature value counts for this market?

The qualifying value is the highest temperature in the hourly temperature remark of any routine METAR observation for Shanghai Pudong International Airport on the observation date. SPECI reports do not count. If a routine report lacks that remark, the body temperature group in whole degrees governs for that report [1].

How is a temperature turned into a bracket?

The value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up. That whole-degree value determines which range contains it [1].

What happens if the main weather source has no data?

If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has enough data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].

Does a Wikipedia page confirm current weather or market results for this contract?

No. The reference pages in this set describe the Shanghai Tower and the city of Shanghai in general terms [2][3]. They do not report weather observations or contract outcomes, and retrieving them does not verify current events.

Was this helpful?
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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