
Highest temperature in Beijing on November 13?
PM $10.2K
1
11
Highest temperature in Beijing on November 13?

PM $10.2K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 15°C at 41.5%.
Polymarket
- 15°C41.5%
- 16°C37%
- 14°C12.5%
- 17°C9.3%
- 13°C2.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.2K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) on 13 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=ZBAA&format=raw&date=2026-11-13T19:00:00Z&hours=30
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which temperature range will contain the highest temperature reported at Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) on 13 November 2026 [1]. Only routine METAR observations count. A report whose line begins with SPECI is excluded [1]. The hourly temperature remark is recorded in tenths of a degree Celsius, then rounded to the nearest whole degree, with exact halves rounded up. That whole-degree value selects the bracket [1].
Each market is one bracket, such as "Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 13?" [1]. The open-ended brackets are "18°C or higher" and "8°C or below" [1]. If the Aviation Weather Center has no routine temperature report by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has enough data, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-12T10:26:45.203Z [1]. These figures describe that earlier snapshot. They are not current prices, executable quotes, or verified probabilities.
All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the record does not flag a partial sample [1]. The highest Yes prices were 0.46 for 15°C, 0.33 for 16°C, and 0.145 for 14°C. The 17°C bracket was 0.063, and 13°C was 0.025 [1]. Four brackets, 8°C or below, 9°C, 10°C, and 11°C, were each quoted at 0.0005 [1]. The record notes that providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, so this is not a verified complete distribution [1].
The Yes prices add up to about 1.04, so they do not form a normalized distribution. Each bracket should be read as its own snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The listed end time is 2026-11-13T12:00:00.000Z, and the provider status was active at observation [1]. The rule text describes resolution at the first METAR issuance on the following day or by 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first [1]. A reader should not treat the listed end time as the resolution outcome.
The record does not show the final resolved bracket. Observation corrections may be considered until a set deadline. If a published value is clearly erroneous, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days while awaiting a correction [1]. The record includes no volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Beijing on November 13?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract is a Polymarket event asking for the highest temperature in Beijing on November 13, 2026. The rules state that the market resolves to the temperature range containing the highest temperature reported at Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) on that date [1]. The qualifying value comes only from routine (METAR) observations for the airport. Reports whose line begins with SPECI are special observations and do not count, and every other report counts as routine, including off-hour reports and reports with no METAR or SPECI label [1]. The event is split into separate ranges, each stated in whole degrees Celsius. Under the rules, the qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, and a value ending in exactly half is rounded up. The rules give examples such as 13.9 degrees counting as 14, 16.5 counting as 17, and negative 8.5 counting as negative 8 [1]. The bracket containing the rounded whole-degree value determines the outcome. In the saved snapshot, the event had eleven ranges, from 8 degrees or below up to 18 degrees or higher, and all eleven were included in the sample [1]. At the observation time of 9:00 UTC on November 12, 2026, the 15 degree range had the highest Yes price at 0.46, followed by 16 degrees at 0.33 and 14 degrees at 0.145 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the saved provider data. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single reported value: the highest routine temperature reading at ZBAA on the observation date, rounded to a whole degree Celsius [1]. Because the outcome depends on which range contains that rounded value, the contract is narrow. It covers one airport, one date, and one reporting rule. Under the rules, the resolution source is the routine observations for ZBAA, and the observation counts when its timestamp, converted to the station's local time including any daylight-saving shift, falls on the observation date [1]. The rules also set timing. The market resolves when the first METAR for the station on the following day is issued, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. The listed end time in the saved data is 12:00 UTC on November 13, 2026 [1]. That is a contract closing time. It is not a record that resolution has occurred. The saved status is active, and the snapshot was taken before the contract's end time. The rules also allow corrections. A report counts whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1]. If a source publishes clearly erroneous data from technical or operational error, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) while the source may issue a correction [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which reports count toward the highest temperature?
Only routine (METAR) observations count. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Other reports count as routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one with no METAR or SPECI label [1].
How is the temperature value rounded?
The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole value determines the range [1].
What happens if a routine observation lacks the hourly temperature remark?
The temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded [1].
What if neither resolution source has enough data?
If neither the Aviation Weather Center nor the Weather Underground Daily Observations table has published data sufficient to determine a temperature by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the rules say the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Does a corrected observation change the result?
The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which alterations are not considered [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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