
Highest temperature in Wellington on November 13?
PM $10.5K
1
11
Highest temperature in Wellington on November 13?

PM $10.5K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 19°C at 51%.
Polymarket
- 19°C51%
- 20°C41%
- 18°C6%
- 21°C2.7%
- 17°C1.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.5K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Wellington Intl Airport (NZWN) on 13 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Wellington Intl Airport (NZWN) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Wellington Intl Airport (NZWN) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=NZWN&format=raw&date=2026-11-13T14:00:00Z&hours=30
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks which temperature range will contain the highest temperature reported at Wellington Intl Airport (NZWN) on 13 Nov '26 [1]. The source states that the qualifying value comes from "the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation," and that a report beginning with SPECI "does not count" [1]. Values are rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with exact halves rounded up [1].
Individual markets differ in wording. Most ask about a single degree, such as "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 13?", while two are open-ended: "23°C or higher" and "13°C or below" [1]. Readers comparing these should check each market's exact bracket rather than treating the titles as interchangeable.
The listed end time is 2026-11-13T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The source also describes a resolution process that can run until 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, and a fallback to a Weather Underground table if the aviation source lacks data [1]. The listed end time is therefore a provider field, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-12T10:26:26.252Z [1]. These are historical snapshots, not live quotes. The most-priced Yes outcomes in this snapshot were 19°C at 0.53, 20°C at 0.34, and 18°C at 0.08 [1]. All other brackets were priced at 0.0375 or lower.
The saved sample includes all 11 markets for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The provider's warning still applies: the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The Yes prices here sum to about 1.02, so they should not be read as exact verified probabilities. The prices also do not show how many traders hold each view, and the volume figures are not used here.
This event is from one provider, so no cross-platform comparison applies. A difference between contracts on different platforms, or between brackets with different wording, would not by itself show an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the observed temperature for 13 November, whether any observation has been published, or how the market has resolved. It also does not explain why prices sit where they do. The snapshot is from several hours before the retrieval time, and conditions may have changed since then. Readers should check the contract's own resolution status and the cited METAR data before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Wellington on November 13?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.