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Market snapshot: . Prices may have changed since this snapshot.
Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?
Vol

PM $238.75

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Events

1

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Markets

6

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Muse from Meta at 43.5%.

Polymarket

  1. Muse from Meta43.5%
  2. Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace42.5%
  3. ChatGPT42.5%
  4. TikTok Pro - Events26.5%
  5. Claude by Anthropic4.2%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $238.75

Reported volume · provider units

6

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

PM $84.34
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 88%
Will Chromagraph Camera be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 28.5%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 4.3%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

PM $69.59
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 41%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 40%
Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 27%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?

PM $234.25
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 45%
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 30.5%
Will Chromagraph Camera be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Yes 24%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $21.53M · K 11.21M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 9%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes 8%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 3.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

PM $62.1K · K 33.5K contracts

Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 89%Rules differK Yes 91.5%

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 85%Rules differK Yes 25%

Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 72.5%Rules differK Yes 70%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Gemini Carbon released on...?

Gemini Carbon released on...?

PM $57.9K
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?Yes 23.5%
Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?Yes 16.5%
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?Yes 16.1%
+29 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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