PredictPedia tracks a market titled "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" in the Politics category. Two providers list related contracts, and their rules differ in important ways. Kalshi's event asks who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel, and its rules state that the market resolves Yes if the first new person to hold the office after issuance is the named individual [1]. The Kalshi rules say the market resolves based on who actually assumes the office, not who is elected or nominated, and that acting or interim appointments count if they formally assume the office [1]. If the same person remains in office through the expiration date, all markets in that event resolve No [1]. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation [1]. The Kalshi event also closes early if a new Prime Minister takes office [1]. Polymarket's event is framed around a parliamentary election. Its description states that legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026 [2]. Under that description, the market resolves to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the 2026 parliamentary election, and if an election is called early, it would resolve after that election instead [2]. Unlike the Kalshi rules, the Polymarket description says an interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count, and that the individual must be formally sworn in [2]. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [2]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [2]. The listed end time for that event is 2026-10-28T03:59:00.000Z [2]. The election date appears in the market description; this article does not treat it as independently confirmed. Because the two events use different resolution wording, a price on one platform cannot be read as a direct substitute for a price on the other. Each contract should be read against its own rules. The price figures in this snapshot are observations from the provider data at the time recorded, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Kalshi's event had 12 markets in the saved sample, and all 12 were included. Polymarket's event had 19 markets, and 12 were included, so that sample is partial. Those 12 Polymarket markets were selected by highest finite Yes price, then volume, and the omitted markets are not shown here, so the sample says nothing about their prices. Trading volume is not a measure of liquidity or of the number of traders.

Historical Context

The Wikipedia excerpt on Netanyahu states that he previously held office from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, and that he is Israel's longest-serving prime minister [3]. The excerpt also says he has served as prime minister since 2022 [3]. That statement comes from a page retrieved for this snapshot and is historical background, not confirmation of who holds office today. The Wikipedia excerpt on the 2022 Israeli legislative election states that legislative elections were held on 1 November 2022 to elect the 120 members of the 25th Knesset. It says the right-wing national camp of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu won a parliamentary majority, with losses for left-wing and Arab parties and gains by the far-right [4]. This describes the 2022 election only. It does not describe the 2026 election referenced in the Polymarket rules [2].

Frequently Asked Questions