GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Name: Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$35.64M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Vol

$35.64M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $35.52M

Kalshi

markets · $118.91K

Price Spread

3.0%avg

max 15.1%

Arbitrage

of 9 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $35.64M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(9)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?ARB	49%	65%	15%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	9%	10%	2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?ARB	5%	7%	2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?ARB	1%	4%	3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?ARB	0%	3%	3%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0%	1%	1%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1%	1%	0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0%	1%	0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	0%	1%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(13)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$35.64M

Volume

Markets

3.3%

Price Gap

About This Event

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2045

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is X then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yariv Levin, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.64M
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.61M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.65)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (19 mkts) vs Kalshi (12 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $7.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.50M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.30M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $38.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.9% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.05M
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.6% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.55M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.9% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $12.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.75M
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 15.1% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.17M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.55M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.4% spread between platforms.

### 10. Will Yoav Gallant be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $16.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2045): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.57M
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.88M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.55M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $672.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.54M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $710.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $249.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Before Jan 1, 2045 If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is X then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets

Volume$118.91K

Markets12

POLYMARKETPolitics

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Volume$35.52M

Markets19

22 of 22

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 15.1% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average57.0%

Polymarket

49.5%

Kalshi+15.1%

64.5%

Difference:15.1% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Gadi Eisenkot, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

POLYMARKET

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average9.3%

Polymarket

8.5%

Kalshi+1.6%

10.1%

Difference:1.6%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 10.1¢No 89.9¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holdi

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

KALSHI

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Israel Katz, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding t

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.4% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average5.7%

Polymarket

4.5%

Kalshi+2.4%

6.9%

Difference:2.4% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 6.9¢No 93.2¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Avigdor Lieberman, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as hol

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

115d 22h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

Polymarket

10¢

Kalshi

15¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/AsNeqt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Markets (9)

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Platform Breakdown

Share

Embed Widget

Event Comparison