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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

OH-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Name: OH-07 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.78K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OH-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Vol

$13.78K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.78K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.78K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	92%
Will Ed FitzGerald be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	5%
Will Scott Schulz be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	3%
Will Laura Rodriguez-Carbone be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	1%
Will John Butchko be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	1%
Will Keith Mundy be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	0%
Will Michael Eisner be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	0%
Will Ann Marie Donegan be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$13.78K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OH-07 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ann Marie Donegan be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ed FitzGerald be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will John Butchko be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Michael Eisner be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Keith Mundy be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Laura Rodriguez-Carbone be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $873
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Scott Schulz be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics