PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $17.2K
1
10
PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $17.2K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 3-6% at 30%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 3-6%30%
- Democrat 6-9%18.9%
- Democrat 15-18%17.9%
- Democrat 0-3%12.5%
- Republican 0-3%10%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $17.2K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 PA-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract in this set measures the margin of victory in the 2026 PA-07 House election. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract, and each names a party, such as "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-07 House election by 3%-6%?" [1]. The rules state that independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1].
The rules also set edge cases. A reported value that "falls exactly between two brackets" resolves to the higher bracket [1]. Ties are handled by ballot-listed last name, and a fallback to "Other" applies if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. That date is a backstop in the rules, not a scheduled event. The rules say the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," and list the contract end time as 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T00:15:50.061Z [1]. It shows ten Polymarket contracts. The highest quoted Yes price is 0.36 for the Democratic 3%-6% bracket, and the lowest is 0.037 for the Republican 6% or more bracket [1]. Other Yes prices include 0.1885 for Democratic 6%-9% and 0.105 for Republican 0%-3% [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They also belong to separate contracts, so the Democratic and Republican brackets should not be averaged or combined into a single view of the race. Yes prices across brackets are not required to add up to one, and a difference in price between two contracts with different wording is not an arbitrage opportunity by itself.
The sample includes all ten saved markets for this event, so it is not partial [1]. The source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A bracket that is absent from the sample does not imply a lower price.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders. The snapshot is one point in time, so it should not be read as a current quote. The official result, the certified count, and any recount are all unknown from this evidence. Readers should check the rules and the current provider page before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory is a Polymarket event tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. Rather than asking who wins, the contracts ask how large the winning margin will be. The contract defines margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract, and a bracket is framed as a question about whether the Democratic or Republican Party candidate will win by a stated range [1]. The contract places the race in a specific calendar frame. The 2026 PA-07 election is expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Separately, Wikipedia reports that the statewide Pennsylvania House elections will be held on that date and that primary elections took place on May 19, 2026 [2]. The contract's listed end time is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, but that is a contract closing time, not a statement of when results will be announced or certified [1]. The contract also has rules for unusual outcomes. Independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican options [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1]. If a margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The saved provider event includes all ten markets in the event, so the sample covers every bracket saved for this contract group. In that saved snapshot, the Democratic 3% to 6% bracket showed a Yes price of 0.36, the Democratic 6% to 9% bracket showed 0.1885, and the Republican 0% to 3% bracket showed 0.105 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a prediction market, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Historical Context
Wikipedia describes the 2026 Pennsylvania House elections as elections that will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect one representative from each of the state's 17 congressional districts, with primaries that took place on May 19, 2026 [2]. Because the general election is described as a future event in that source, the historical record for this contract is limited to the primary date and the scheduled election date.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the competitive gap between the top two vote getters in a single House race, expressed as a percentage of valid votes. It does not measure turnout, the number of votes cast, or the winner alone. A market on a 3% to 6% margin, for example, resolves on the official percentage difference between the first- and second-place candidates after the count is official [1]. The resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Because the contract is tied to official certification, the timing of results and any recount can affect when it resolves [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the margin of victory in this contract?
It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Do independent candidates count as options?
No. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the Democrat and Republican options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1].
What happens if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the contract deadline?
The contract states that if election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Does the listed end time mean the election results will be known then?
No. The listed end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC is a contract closing time [1]. The contract resolves based on official results once the count has been made official, and it remains open if a recount is initiated before certification [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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