PA-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.4K
1
10
PA-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 45-50% at 25.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 45-50%25.5%
- Democrat 50-55%21.4%
- Democrat 40-45%19.8%
- Democrat 55-60%19.3%
- Democrat 60%+5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 PA-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract defines the outcome as the margin of victory in the 2026 PA-02 House election, meaning the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates [1]. Only the Democratic and Republican nominees count as options. Independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. The rules say that if a reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
The rules also set a timeline. The election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," and the listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Resolution follows the official count once it is certified. If results are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That June 2027 date is a fallback rule in the contract, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and this record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:58:59.708Z [1]. The prices describe that earlier observation only. They are not live quotes and should not be treated as current probabilities.
The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Among the Democratic margin brackets, the Yes prices are 0.265 for 45%-50%, 0.263 for 55%-60%, 0.213 for 50%-55%, and 0.1555 for 40%-45%. The lower-priced brackets include 0.07 for 60% or more and 0.0185 for 0%-20%. A separate Republican-win contract shows a Yes price of 0.014 [1].
These Democratic bracket Yes prices sum to about 1.056. Because each bracket is a separate contract and the prices are snapshots, this total is not a verified probability distribution. The evidence does not explain the difference, and it should not be read as an opportunity without checking executable terms.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers only this saved provider event. It does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. The Republican-win contract is a different question from the margin brackets, so the two should not be combined into one ranking or average. The evidence contains no news, trader counts, or reasons for price levels. It also does not show how prices have changed over time.
References
- Polymarket: PA-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PA-02 House Election Margin of Victory contract is tied to the 2026 House election in Pennsylvania's second district. The source states that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the winning margin will be, and it groups outcomes into brackets such as "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-02 House election by 45%-50%?" and "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-02 House election by 60% or more?" [1]. A separate contract asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win the election [1]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is found by dividing a top-two candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. For the purposes of this market, the Democratic and Republican Party nominees represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. Candidate names may appear in the contract for traders' convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The saved event lists 10 markets, and the coverage record shows all 10 were included, so this is not a partial sample of the event's saved markets [1]. The prices shown are snapshots taken at the observation time for this event. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a low-priced bracket should not be read as a forecast of its likelihood. Traders should note that prices for different brackets can differ without creating any opportunity to profit from the gap.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the winning margin in the PA-02 House election, expressed as a difference in percentage points between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes [1]. Because the bracket that matches the final margin determines settlement, the contract reflects expectations about how decisively the race will be decided rather than only which party prevails [1]. The source states that the primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 PA-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count, so the contract stays open until a recount initiated before certification is complete [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated against the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in this contract?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party, and the Democrat and Republican options refer to the nominees of those parties [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract will be updated, and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to "Other" [1].
When would the contract resolve to Other?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if a recount is started?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
PA-13 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $22.7KPA-05 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $19.0KPA-14 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $19.0K
PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $17.2KPA-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.5KPA-08 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.2KMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
