Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Name: FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$174.15K

Events

Markets

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FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Vol

$174.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $174.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $174.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Poly	67%
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Poly	33%
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$174.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that produ

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (447 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that produ

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $174.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.55)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $134.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $28.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Volume$174.15K

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

POLYMARKET

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed b

POLYMARKET

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Mod

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Jan 01, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC

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37¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/BuqXxm" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?"></iframe>

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FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

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Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Markets (3)

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?

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Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?

Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?

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