Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

Name: Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$57.73K

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Markets

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Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

Vol

$57.73K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $57.73K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $57.73K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	Poly	61%
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?	Poly	38%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$57.73K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (263 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $57.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.86)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $51.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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