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Events
GroupKALSHI

Will Mamdani run for re-election?

Will Mamdani run for re-election?
Vol

K 2.5K contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

1

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 20, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 80.5% on Kalshi.

Kalshi

  1. Yes80.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 2.5K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Before Apr 6, 2029 If Zohran Mamdani has announced that he will run for mayor of New York City in 2029 before Apr 6, 2029, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. This market will close and expire early if the person announces their candidacy.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

K 66 contracts
Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?Yes 97%
Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?Yes 88%
Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?Yes 77%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many House Republicans will lose reelection in 2026?

How many House Republicans will lose reelection in 2026?

K 52 contracts
Will at least 16 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026?Yes 96%
Will at least 20 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026?Yes 86.5%
Will at least 24 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026?Yes 66%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
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How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026?

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026?

K 129.2K contracts
Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?Yes 92.8%
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+3 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
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How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

K 30.4K contracts
Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?Yes 37.5%
Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?Yes 23.5%
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+3 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
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How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

K 62.5K contracts
Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?Yes 54.5%
Will exactly 4 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?Yes 18.5%
Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?Yes 9.2%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
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PM $717.47M · K 75.30M contracts

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

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Needs review

PM Yes 20.1%Review neededK Yes 20.5%

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PM Yes 13.1%Review neededK Yes 9.7%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Kalshi: Who will win the next presidential election? (Gavin Newsom)

Needs review

PM Yes 9%Review neededK Yes 11.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

22 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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