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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Name: Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
End: 2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.07K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Vol

$5.07K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.07K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Poly	82%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$5.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for Presi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 15, 2026 (37 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for Presi

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 15, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics