Will Russia capture Stavky by...?
PM $135.1K
1
1
Will Russia capture Stavky by...?
PM $135.1K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 7%.
Polymarket
- December 317%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $135.1K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract from the event "Will Russia capture Stavky by...?" The market resolves "Yes" if the ISW map shows Russia capturing the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the deadline [1]. Only continuous shading under "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" or "Assessed Russian Advances" qualifies. Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, later loss of control is not counted [1].
The rules also address a negotiated settlement. Actual control qualifies even without qualifying map shading, but an announced settlement that gives Russia de jure control does not [1]. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. The contract title refers to December 31, 2026, and the rules specify 11:59 PM ET, which corresponds to this listed time. The end time is a closing timestamp in the contract rules, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T13:10:45.617Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation only and may not reflect current trading.
- Yes: 0.09
- No: 0.91
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so no conclusions about market depth can be drawn. The status at observation was "active" [1].
The coverage record shows one market in the saved event, with no partial sample [1]. This is the only outcome in the saved data, so no comparison with other contracts or platforms is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is at its observed level. It also does not include current map status, any recent reporting on the area, or information about how the market has moved over time. The ISW map's status at the observation time, and at any later time, is outside this snapshot.
The snapshot cannot show whether the market has resolved or whether it will resolve "Yes" or "No." Readers should check the current market page and the ISW map before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia capture Stavky by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "Will Russia capture Stavky by...?" The market asks whether Russia will take control of a specific intersection in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, at coordinates 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E, between market creation and the resolution date of December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which is the contract's own rule timestamp and not an announced event date [1]. The contract resolves to Yes only if the ISW Ukraine map shows continuous shading at that intersection under qualifying layers. The contract names two qualifying layers: Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain and Assessed Russian Advances [1]. The layers Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas and Claimed Russian Territory do not qualify [1]. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle, or until the next finalized ISW update if ISW skips a day [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, later loss of control does not affect resolution [1]. The rules also address negotiated outcomes. If Russia gains control of the territory through a negotiated settlement, the contract resolves Yes even without qualifying map shading. However, an announced settlement that gives Russia de jure control does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1]. If the ISW map is unavailable, the rules allow information from DeepStateMap to be used. If both sources are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary map glitches or errors are excluded [1]. The Wikipedia timeline and Lyman article in the source set do not describe the Stavky intersection or the contract's resolution process, so they do not establish the current status of this location [2][3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific map-based condition is met by December 31, 2026, not a broader military outcome across Stavky or the surrounding area [1]. Because resolution depends on a defined map layer and persistence rule, the wording of the layers and update cycle determines what counts [1]. The saved snapshot shows a Yes price of 0.09 and a No price of 0.91 as of 2026-10-17T12:00:05Z, which are snapshot prices and not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. The sample includes the only saved market for this provider event, with no omitted markets recorded in the coverage data.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event does the contract require to resolve Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows continuous shading at the specified intersection under the Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain or Assessed Russian Advances layers, which must persist through the required update cycle [1].
Do Claimed Russian Territory or Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas count?
No. The contract states that shading under these two layers will not qualify for resolution [1].
Would a negotiated settlement resolve the contract?
A negotiated settlement that gives Russia control of the territory qualifies for Yes even without qualifying map shading. An announcement giving Russia de jure control alone does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1].
What happens if Russia loses control after the condition is met?
Under the contract, any later loss of control after a qualifying condition is met is not considered toward resolution [1].
What if the ISW map is unavailable?
The contract allows DeepStateMap to be used if the ISW map is rendered unavailable. If both sources are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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