Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
PM $187.55M · K 6.69M contracts
8
37
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
PM $187.55M · K 6.69M contracts
8
37
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $187.55M · K 6.69M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
37
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is X Y Z 9%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes, votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes, received by the candidate named in the market minus the share received by the other candidate in the runoff if the named candidate wins, or the share of the candidate that finishes first if the named candidate loses. If the named candidate wins, the margin will be positive; if the named candidate loses, the margin will be negative; if the named candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contracts track the margin of victory in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The rules define the margin as the share of valid votes, "votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes," received by the named candidate minus the other candidate's share [1]. The margin is positive if the named candidate wins and negative if the named candidate loses [1]. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and "no rounding shall be applied" [1]. A margin of exactly 6% therefore falls in the 6% to 9% range, not the 3% to 6% range [1].
Each market names one candidate and one range, so Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva contracts answer different questions and should not be read as one combined field. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The listed end time is "not supplied" in the rules [1], yet the market records show an end date of 2027-10-25 [1]. The rules refer to an event on Oct 25, 2026 [1]. The evidence does not resolve this difference, so readers should not assume either date is the actual close.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these eight Kalshi markets at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:04:31Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier observation, not live conditions now. The listed Yes prices are 0.455 for Flávio Bolsonaro from 3% to 6%, 0.22 for Flávio Bolsonaro from 0% to 3%, 0.195 for Flávio Bolsonaro from 6% to 9%, 0.08 for Flávio Bolsonaro at least 9%, 0.095 for Lula da Silva from 0% to 3%, 0.035 for Lula da Silva from 3% to 6%, and 0.005 for each of the two Lula da Silva ranges of 6% to 9% and at least 9%.
These are quoted snapshots, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across these markets do not sum to one, which is one reason they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. All eight markets come from one provider event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The sample is marked as complete: all eight saved markets are included and the sample is not partial [1]. However, the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence does not show why any price was set, how many traders were involved, or what events occurred after the observation. Volume is not supplied in a way that would support liquidity conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia's saved record covers a Kalshi event titled "Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory" [1]. The contract rules describe a market tied to the margin of victory in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with the margin defined by the share of valid votes [1]. Valid votes exclude blank and null votes, and the margin is the named candidate's share minus the other runoff candidate's share if the named candidate wins [1]. If the named candidate loses, the margin is measured against the candidate who finishes first and is treated as negative [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. The rules sort outcomes into margin ranges. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied [1]. The rules give an example in which a margin of 5.99999 percent falls in the 5 to 6 percent range, while a margin of exactly 6 percent falls in the 6 to 7 percent range [1]. The saved markets name either Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro, with ranges from 0 to 3 percent, 3 to 6 percent, 6 to 9 percent, and at least 9 percent [1]. The saved event record lists the provider status as active and says the event will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The saved market records show an end date of October 25, 2027, but the provider event excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The October 25 date named in the event title and rules is a contract reference, not an announced election or resolution event. In the saved snapshot observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z, the eight included markets showed these Yes prices: Flávio Bolsonaro 0 to 3 percent at 0.22, 3 to 6 percent at 0.455, 6 to 9 percent at 0.195, and at least 9 percent at 0.08. Lula da Silva 0 to 3 percent was at 0.095, 3 to 6 percent at 0.035, 6 to 9 percent at 0.005, and at least 9 percent at 0.005 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as the current state of the race.
Historical Context
Brazil's presidential runoff exists because the first round can fail to produce a winner. The 2006 general election, for example, held a second round on 29 October because no candidate received more than 50 percent of the first-round vote [2]. The 1994 general election was the second to take place under the 1988 constitution and the second direct presidential election since 1960 [3]. These sources describe earlier elections and do not describe the 2026 runoff's results or status.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the winning margin in the runoff, not simply who wins. Because the margin is computed from shares of valid votes and uses inclusive lower bounds with no rounding, the range a result falls into depends on those exact rules [1]. A market on a range therefore resolves Yes only if the margin falls inside that range under the stated definition [1]. The saved record includes eight markets in total, and the sample coverage flags indicate that all saved markets for this event are included, though that does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. Price snapshots from one observation time show how the saved markets were priced at that moment and should not be compared with prices from other events or times.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated under the contract rules?
The margin is based on the share of valid votes, which excludes blank and null votes [1]. If the named candidate wins, the margin is that candidate's share minus the other runoff candidate's share. If the named candidate loses, the margin is measured against the candidate who finishes first and is negative [1].
What happens if the two candidates tie for first place?
If the named candidate ties for first place, the margin is set to 0 under the rules [1].
Are the margin ranges inclusive or exclusive of their endpoints?
Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied [1]. The rules give the example that a margin of exactly 6 percent resolves in the 6 to 7 percent range [1].
Could this market close before the election date named in its title?
The rules say the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The saved event record does not supply a listed end time [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
