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GroupPOLYMARKET

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?
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PM $0

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $0

Reported volume · provider units

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset passes, in its third reading, a law prohibiting an individual who has been indicted for a criminal offense from being tasked with forming a government or from serving as Prime Minister (commonly referred to as the "Defendant Law") between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any law containing this prohibition will qualify, regardless of its title, bill number, whether it amends a Basic Law or another law, or whether it results from a replacement bill, a split bill, or a broader legislative package. The specific offenses covered and any other provisions will not affect resolution, provided this prohibition is included in the passed law. A law that does not contain this prohibition will not qualify. Passage in the third reading in the Knesset plenum is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Publication in the official gazette (Reshumot), the law's entry into force, and the outcome of any court challenge are not required and will have no bearing on this market. Approval in a preliminary, first, or second reading, or committee decisions, will not qualify unless the law is subsequently passed in its third reading within this market's timeframe. Rejection or withdrawal of any particular bill will not independently trigger a "No" resolution before the deadline; a qualifying law passed through another bill will still count. If no qualifying law is passed within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset, including the record of plenum votes published on knesset.gov.il; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
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Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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