Current Market Outlook

The Kalshi market is pricing Sara Duterte's departure before 2027 at 44%. That is not a coin flip. It is a 44% chance, meaning the market sees her removal as a real possibility but still slightly less likely than her finishing the term. For context, Philippine vice presidents have historically low removal rates. Only one VP has been successfully impeached in the country's modern history.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The 44% number reflects three concrete pressures. First, the Duterte-Marcos political alliance has fractured badly. Sara Duterte resigned from her cabinet post as Education Secretary in June 2024, and she has publicly accused President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of betraying their 2022 electoral pact. Second, impeachment talk is real. In November 2024, a House resolution was filed citing "betrayal of public trust" over her alleged misuse of confidential funds. The House is controlled by Marcos allies. Third, her father Rodrigo Duterte's declining health and the family's political isolation reduce her institutional protection. The Supreme Court, which would try an impeachment, is stacked with Marcos appointees.

What Could Change These Odds

The biggest catalyst is the 2025 midterm elections. If Duterte-backed candidates win Senate seats, she gains a firewall against impeachment. The trial requires a Senate conviction. If her coalition performs poorly, the odds jump toward 60%+.

A second trigger is the ICC investigation into Rodrigo Duterte's drug war. If the former president is arrested, Sara's political standing could collapse, accelerating her removal.

The floor is 20%. Even hostile presidents rarely remove VPs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo survived multiple impeachment attempts. But the ceiling is 55% because Marcos has shown he is willing to break alliances when politically convenient.