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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

Name: Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
End: 2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.33M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

Vol

$1.33M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.33M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.33M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?	Poly	85%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?	Poly	83%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Poly	78%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?	Poly	3%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 3?	Poly	3%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?	Poly	2%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?	Poly	1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?	Poly	1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?	Poly	1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?	Poly	1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$1.33M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.50M
* **Total Liquidity:** $371.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $35.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $33.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $25.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $32.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $28.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $26.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $26.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $24.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $32.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $44.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $399.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $465.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 10, 2026): Vol $327.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics