When will Elder Scrolls VI be released?
PM $3.7K · K 41.8K contracts
2
3
When will Elder Scrolls VI be released?
PM $3.7K · K 41.8K contracts
2
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 4% on Polymarket, and the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before 2028 at 21.5%.
Polymarket
- Yes4%
Kalshi
- Before 202821.5%
- Before 20272%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $3.7K · K 41.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Before 2028 If Elder Scrolls VI is released on any console before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The provider event asks when The Elder Scrolls VI will be released. Kalshi lists two markets under its event. One asks whether the game will be released before 2028, and the other asks about before 2027. The excerpt states that if the game is "released on any console before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes," with "X" left unfilled in the saved text [1]. The Kalshi markets carry end dates of 2028-01-01T15:00:00.000Z and 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z [1].
Polymarket lists one market asking whether the game will be "officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [2]. That source says early access, beta versions, and leaks do not count, and that a console-only release counts [2]. Its listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [2].
Because the rules differ in platform scope, geography, and cutoff date, the Kalshi and Polymarket contracts are not the same question and should not be compared as one.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z, and the retrieval time is 2026-10-29T05:08:21.425Z [1][2]. These prices describe that saved snapshot. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
Within the Kalshi event, the "before 2028" Yes price is 0.115 and the "before 2027" Yes price is 0.02 [1]. Each market has its own window, so the difference reflects different contracts. The Polymarket Yes price is 0.0385 for release in the US by December 31, 2026 [2].
No prices are averaged across platforms, and no arbitrage is implied by the gap between the Polymarket and Kalshi figures, since their wording and close times differ.
What remains uncertain
Coverage is complete for the saved events. Kalshi included 2 of 2 markets, and Polymarket included 1 of 1 [1][2]. The sample warning still applies: the saved markets do not establish that the providers list every possible outcome.
The saved data does not include volume, trader counts, or the reasons for any price. It also does not establish whether either market has resolved. Readers should check the current provider pages and the official sources named in the contract rules before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: When will Elder Scrolls VI be released?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
- Polymarket: Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
The Elder Scrolls VI is the subject of two prediction market events that ask when the game will be released. A retrieved Wikipedia article describes it as an upcoming action role-playing video game developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks, and as the sixth main installment in the series after The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim from 2011 [3]. That description reflects the article text at retrieval and does not establish the game's status today. The two events use different contract wording. A Kalshi event asks whether the game will be released before 2028. Its rules say that if the game is released on any console before the stated date, the market resolves to Yes, and that the market closes early if the event occurs [1]. Kalshi's saved markets in this event are framed as release before 2028 and release before 2027 [1]. A Polymarket event asks whether the game will be released by December 31, 2026. Its rules say the market resolves to Yes if the game is officially released in the US by 11:59 PM ET on that date, and to No otherwise [2]. The rules define release as the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks do not count. A console-only release counts, with Xbox Series X/S given as an example [2]. The Polymarket resolution source is official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft [2]. Traders comparing these contracts should read each rule set separately, since the date windows, the platform wording and the definition of release differ.
Historical Context
The Elder Scrolls is a series of action role-playing video games, primarily developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The series focuses on free-form gameplay in an open world [4]. The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind (2002), The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (2006) and The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (2011) each won Game of the Year awards from multiple outlets, and the series has sold more than 90 million copies worldwide [4]. The Elder Scrolls VI is described as the sixth main installment, following Skyrim [3].
Why It Matters
Each contract measures whether a specific release condition is met within a specific window, so the same game can produce different outcomes under different rules. The Kalshi contract asks about any console release before a stated date [1]. The Polymarket contract asks about an official, publicly available release in the US by the end of 2026 and excludes early access, beta access and leaks [2]. A reader who wants to understand the question should start with the resolution wording of the specific contract rather than the event title alone.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does early access or a beta count as a release?
Under the Polymarket contract, early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability and leaks do not count as an official release [2].
Would a release on only one console count?
Under the Polymarket contract, a release limited to certain consoles counts, with Xbox Series X/S given as an example [2]. The Kalshi contract refers to release on any console before its stated date [1].
Who provides the official information used to resolve the Polymarket contract?
The resolution source named in the Polymarket rules is official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft [2].
Does the Wikipedia article show that the game has been released?
The retrieved Wikipedia text describes the game as upcoming [3]. That description reflects the article at the time it was retrieved and does not confirm a release or the game's current status.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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