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Events
GroupKALSHI

10-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 4.94848% target

10-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 4.94848% target
Vol

K 50 contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

1

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 22, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Target yield: TBD at 41.5%.

Kalshi

  1. Target yield: TBD41.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 50 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Oct 22 - 2:00PM EDT to 2:15PM EDT If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 22, 2026 is at least the opening target yield, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 10-year U.S. Treasury ending at 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 22, 2026. The 10-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US10Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places. Yields are expressed as annualized percentages. The opening target and settlement yield each use the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick immediately preceding their observation time. For a 4:45–5:00 PM EDT market, the opening target uses the candle timestamped 4:44 PM, ending at 4:45 PM; settlement uses the candle timestamped 4:59 PM, ending at 5:00 PM. Candlesticks are timestamped by their start time. If reliable Pyth data is unavailable, the contract’s no-data provisions apply.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomy
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $34.7K · K 36.7K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.3%Rules differK Yes 10.5%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.9%Rules differK Yes 8%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3%Rules differK Yes 6%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomy
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $29.3K · K 14.7K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.09% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 98.5%Rules differK Yes 98.5%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 95.5%Rules differK Yes 98%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 90%Rules differK Yes 92%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiEconomics
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

K 56.3K contracts
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026?Yes 85%
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026?Yes 71%
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026?Yes 56%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 2, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomy
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

PM $1.06M · K 11.6K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Kalshi: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 19.8%Rules differK Yes 43.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiFinancials
2-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 4.62794% target

2-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 4.62794% target

K 0 contracts
2-year U.S. Treasury yield up in next 15 mins?Yes 43%
1 mktNext deadline Oct 29, 2026 UTC
KalshiFinancials
30-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 5.28760% target

30-year U.S. Treasury yield 15 min · 5.28760% target

K 0 contracts
30-year U.S. Treasury yield up in next 15 mins?Yes 41%
1 mktNext deadline Oct 29, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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