Market snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform3 EventsEconomics

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Reported volume

PM $67.5K · K 380.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Vol

PM $67.5K · K 380.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ≥3.0% at 65.5%, and on Kalshi it is Above 0.5% at 99.5%.

Polymarket

≥3.0%65.5%
2.5–3.0%21.5%
2.0–2.5%8.5%
1.5–2.0%4%
1.0–1.5%1.4%

Kalshi

Above 0.5%99.5%
Above 0.0%99%
Above 1.0%99%
Above 1.5%97%
Above 2.0%90.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

23 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 2 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-29T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "US GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources not reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-29T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "US GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources not reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $67.5K · K 380.2K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

In Q3 2026 If real GDP, as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate, increases by more than X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $67.5K · K 380.2K contracts
Coverage: 25 of 25 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 40.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 43.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 56.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247818; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-greater-than-3pt0-20260730144539774
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $51.6K
Outcome Yes: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T3.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 161 contracts
Outcome Yes: 31.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 69.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T4.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 96.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 4.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 26.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 6.8K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 39.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 78.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 22.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 82.7K contracts
Outcome Yes: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 15.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-26oct30
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 10.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 1.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247812; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-less-than-0pt5-20260730144539768
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247813; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-between-0pt5-and-1pt0-20260730144539769
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 0.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247814; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5-20260730144539770
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 1.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247815; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-between-1pt5-and-2pt0-20260730144539771
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.6K
Outcome Yes: 4.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247816; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-between-2pt0-and-2pt5-20260730144539772
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.0K
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3247817; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-be-between-2pt5-and-3pt0-20260730144539773
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.5K
Outcome Yes: 21.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 78.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by 

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T4.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 929.03 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 4.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T3.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 52.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 82.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T2.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 407.39 contracts
Outcome Yes: 43.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 57.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T2.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 58.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 42.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T1.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 68.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 32.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T1.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 78.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 22.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T0.5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 376.02 contracts
Outcome Yes: 86.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 14.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Contract: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T0.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp-27jan28
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 138.01 contracts
Outcome Yes: 91.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 9.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-3247818 / kalshi-KXGDP-27JAN28-T3.0: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-04-29T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources not reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-29T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "US GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources not reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
polymarket-3247818 / kalshi-KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-29T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources not reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 28, 2026, 4:20 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-29T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "US GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources not reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Volume$320.56K

Markets9

POLYMARKETEconomy

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Volume$67.48K

Markets7

23 of 23

Sort:

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?

kalshi

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?

Yes: 99.5¢
No: 0.5¢

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?

kalshi

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?

Yes: 99.0¢
No: 1.0¢

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?

kalshi

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?

Yes: 99.0¢
No: 1.0¢

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?

kalshi

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?

Yes: 97.0¢
No: 3.0¢

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

kalshi

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Yes: 91.0¢
No: 9.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2026?

PM $34.1K · K 429.6K contracts

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Kalshi: GDP growth in 2026? (0.0% or Below)

Related contracts

PM Yes 3%Rules differK Yes 0.4%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 29, 2027 UTC

KalshiEconomics

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Oct 30, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

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