Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks about Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product, using the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026 [1]. The rules state that the market resolves on data from the initial release, and that later revisions "will not be considered for this market's resolution" [1]. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket [1].

The rules say the release is "scheduled for release on October 30, 2026," and the listed end time is 2026-10-30T06:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's own wording and listed close time. It does not independently confirm when the statistics agency will publish.

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T07:34:54.395Z [1]. These prices describe that window only and may not reflect current conditions.

Each bracket is a separate contract with a Yes and a No price. The highest Yes price is 0.36 for growth between 3.0% and 3.5%, followed by 0.295 for growth between 2.5% and 3.0% [1]. Lower brackets show 0.155 for 2.0% to 2.5%, and 0.14 for 1.5% to 2.0% [1]. The remaining brackets, including "less than 0.5%," are priced below 0.02 [1].

The Yes prices across these eight brackets sum to about 1.08, so they should not be read as one consistent probability distribution. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The source also notes that this does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. The brackets belong to one provider event, so they should not be averaged with, or ranked against, markets on other platforms.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not report trader counts or liquidity. The actual Q3 2026 figure is not in the evidence, so the outcome is unknown here. Bracket boundaries use "between" wording, so readers should check the exact range and tie rule before comparing values near an edge. Because only the initial release counts, later revisions will not change resolution under the stated rules [1].

References

1. Polymarket: Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.