GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

Name: UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
End: 2026-11-12T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.31K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

Vol

$18.31K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.31K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.31K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Poly	44%
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	Poly	27%
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?	Poly	18%
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative?	Poly	6%
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	Poly	5%
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.0%?	Poly	3%
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$18.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the dat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 12, 2026 (68 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the dat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.

The GDP release"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 12, 2026): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy