UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
PM $46.2K
1
7
UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
PM $46.2K
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 0.6–0.7% at 58.6%.
Polymarket
- 0.6–0.7%58.6%
- 0.8–0.9%22.3%
- 0.4–0.5%15%
- 1.0%+4.6%
- 0.2–0.3%4.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $46.2K
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks about UK real GDP growth for Q3 2026, measured quarter-on-previous-quarter, using the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 2026 [1]. The rules say the release is "scheduled for November 12, 2026" [1]. That is a date in the contract rules, and the evidence does not confirm whether the release will occur on that date.
Resolution uses the initial release only. The rules state that "any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution" [1]. Growth is reported to one decimal place, so the market resolves at that precision [1]. If no Q3 data is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled, the market resolves on the last available quarter [1].
Each saved contract is a bracket, such as "between 0.6% and 0.7%," or a threshold, such as "at least 1.0%" or "negative" [1]. The platform lists an end time of 2026-11-13T04:59:00.000Z for these markets [1]. That listed close time falls after the rule's scheduled release date, so readers should check the rule text rather than assume the close time marks the data release.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-21T13:52:40.783Z [1]. These are past snapshots, not live quotes.
In this snapshot, the highest Yes price is for the bracket "between 0.6% and 0.7%" at 0.6425 [1]. The next highest are "between 0.8% and 0.9%" at 0.1365 and "between 0.4% and 0.5%" at 0.11 [1]. The Yes prices for the seven saved markets add to about 1.04. Because they do not sum to 1, these prices should not be read as a probability distribution. They are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
What remains uncertain
All seven saved markets for this event are included, and the coverage record reports no partial sample [1]. However, the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Brackets such as 0.1% to 0.2%, 0.3% to 0.4%, 0.5% to 0.6%, 0.7% to 0.8%, and 0.9% to 1.0% do not appear in this saved set. Their absence does not mean they are priced lower.
The evidence does not explain why prices changed or where they will move. It also does not include volume or trader counts, so it cannot show liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
References
- Polymarket: UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 21, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market is a Polymarket event asking about the growth rate of UK real gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2026, measured quarter on previous quarter [1]. The rules state that it resolves according to the figure in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 2026, which the rules describe as scheduled for November 12, 2026 [1]. That date appears in the contract rules, so it is the date the contract refers to, not a separately confirmed announcement of the release. The contract uses the initial release only. Data may be revised in later releases, but revisions made after the initial release are not considered for resolution [1]. The resolution source reports growth to one decimal place, such as 1.8%, and the market uses that same precision [1]. If no data for the quarter is released by the date the following quarter's data is scheduled, the market resolves on the last available quarter [1]. The event is listed as active, with a listed end time of 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z [1]. The end time is when the contract closes for trading under the listing. It is separate from the release date and the resolution outcome, which depend on the published figure described above [1]. The saved market set includes seven contracts from this single event, each asking whether growth will fall in a particular range, such as between 0.6% and 0.7%, between 0.2% and 0.3%, negative, or at least 1.0% [1]. The saved set does not include contracts for every possible range. Growth values that fall between the listed ranges are not represented by a saved contract, so the listed contracts should not be read as a complete list of possible results.
Historical Context
The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction across many economies from late 2007 to mid-2009, overlapping with the 2008 financial crisis. The scale and timing varied by country, and the International Monetary Fund concluded at the time that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression of the 1930s [2]. This is historical background only. It does not describe current UK economic conditions or the outlook for Q3 2026.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single published number: the initial estimate of UK GDP growth for Q3 2026, compared with the previous quarter, reported to one decimal place [1]. Because the contract resolves on the initial release and ignores later revisions, the outcome is fixed by that one publication [1]. Each saved contract asks whether that figure falls in a particular band, so the prices reflect how the market currently values each band rather than a verified forecast [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-21 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What figure decides this market?
The market resolves using the UK real GDP growth rate for Q3 2026 compared with the previous quarter, as shown in the initial release of the ONS GDP first quarterly estimate [1].
Are later revisions to the GDP figure counted?
No. The rules say that data from the initial release is used, and any revisions made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution [1].
How precise does the resolution need to be?
The resolution source reports growth to one decimal point, and the market uses that level of precision, so a figure such as 1.8% is the reference level [1].
What happens if the Q3 data is not released in time?
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, the market resolves based on the last available quarter [1].
Do the prices show the probability of each outcome?
The prices are observed values for each contract at the time captured in the saved data, and they are not verified probabilities or executable quotes [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
PM $40.5K
Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
PM $46.2K
Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PM $73.1K
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
PM $113.1K
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
PM $77.6K
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PM $64.7KMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
