Anthropic IPO by __?
PM $5.17M
1
5
Anthropic IPO by __?
PM $5.17M
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 78.5%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 202678.5%
- December 15, 202674.5%
- November 30, 202664%
- November 15, 20262.3%
- October 31, 20260.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $5.17M
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Each market in this snapshot asks whether Anthropic shares will be listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by a cutoff date. The contract wording says it "will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date" [1]. The rules also say that if Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already public, the market resolves "No" immediately [1].
The primary resolution source is "official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange," including SEC filings, exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. Because the markets share an event but differ in cutoff date, the wording is the same across them. Only the deadline changes.
Reading the snapshot
The data was observed at 2026-10-20T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-20T03:31:05Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only and may not reflect current conditions.
The five Polymarket contracts show Yes prices that rise with the deadline:
- By October 31, 2026: Yes 0.003, No 0.997, listed end 2026-11-01T03:59Z.
- By November 15, 2026: Yes 0.108, No 0.892, listed end 2026-11-16T04:59Z.
- By November 30, 2026: Yes 0.645, No 0.355, listed end 2026-12-01T04:59Z.
- By December 15, 2026: Yes 0.755, No 0.245, listed end 2026-12-16T04:59Z.
- By December 31, 2026: Yes 0.775, No 0.225, listed end 2027-01-01T04:59Z.
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The listed end times fall in UTC, and the rule text refers to 11:59 PM ET on each listed date, so the two should be read together. Volume and liquidity were not supplied and cannot be inferred from these prices.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and the marketCoverage record marks it as not partial. However, the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot cannot show other possible deadlines or outcomes.
No other platform's prices were supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences between contracts should not be read as arbitrage opportunities without matching terms and executable prices. The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are, and no recent reporting beyond the rule text was supplied.
References
- Polymarket: Anthropic IPO by __?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled Anthropic IPO by __?, which groups several contracts that ask whether Anthropic will go public by different deadlines. Each contract is a yes or no question. According to the provider's rules, the contract resolves Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date [1]. If Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already public, the market resolves No immediately [1]. The distinction between dates matters here. The contract's listed end time is a closing time for trading in the contract, and the rules themselves do not announce an IPO date [1]. Background sources describe a planned initial public offering in November 2026 [2][3], but these sources describe a plan, not a completed listing. Wikipedia is used here only as background, and its retrieval does not confirm any current event. The contracts in this event share the same underlying question but use different deadlines, from October 31, 2026 to December 31, 2026 [1]. Because each contract has its own deadline and resolution date, they should be read as separate questions rather than as one forecast with several branches. Any price shown is a snapshot of trading activity at a specific observation time. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability of an IPO occurring.
Historical Context
Anthropic, PBC is an American artificial intelligence public benefit corporation headquartered in San Francisco, California, whose flagship product is Claude, a series of proprietary large language models [3]. The company was founded in January 2021 by former members of OpenAI, with the goal of promoting AI safety [3]. The background source describes the company as privately held and reports a valuation of $965 billion in a May 2026 Series H round [3]. On June 1, 2026, the company confidentially filed for an initial public offering, which one background source says could raise up to $100 billion and value the company at around $2 trillion [2]. The same source describes the offering as planned for November 2026 [2]. These are planning details from background sources and do not establish whether the offering has been completed or when shares will begin trading.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Anthropic's shares become publicly tradable on a stock exchange by a given deadline [1]. That makes it a question about timing and execution of a listing, not about the company's valuation or the quality of its products. The rules allow resolution through official filings and announcements, including SEC filings such as Form S-1 and Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The acquisition clause is also relevant. A purchase by an already-public company would end the question as No, even if the company had previously announced IPO plans [1]. Traders reading the event should therefore check the resolution source and deadline for each contract rather than relying on the event title alone.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a Yes resolution?
Anthropic shares must be listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date for the specific contract [1].
Does a planned IPO date mean the contract will resolve Yes?
No. Background sources describe a planned offering in November 2026 [2][3], but the contract requires shares to be listed and open for trading by the deadline, and the rules name official filings, exchange confirmations, and press releases as the primary resolution sources [1].
What happens if Anthropic is acquired?
If Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already public, the market resolves No immediately [1].
Does the price of a contract show the probability of an IPO?
Not as a verified figure. The prices in this event are snapshots taken at a specific observation time, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Same question, fine print differs
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
Kalshi: Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?
Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
PM $183.5KAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
PM $545.4KAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
PM $526.0KAnthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
PM $21.1KMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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