This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will meet with Iran by May 31?

Name: Who will meet with Iran by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.15K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will meet with Iran by May 31?

Vol

$1.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Poly	43%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Poly	40%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Poly	32%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Poly	26%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$1.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will meet with Iran by May 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, the listed individual must be physica"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $164.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics