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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?

How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?
Vol

PM $3.0K

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4-7 at 31%.

Polymarket

  1. 4-731%
  2. <428%
  3. 8-1124%
  4. 12-1511%
  5. 16+2%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $3.0K

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before November 2, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 8, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?

How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?

PM $16.0K
Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between October 26-November 1?Yes 50.5%
Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 26-November 1?Yes 44.5%
Will UKMTO publish 12-15 notices between October 26-November 1?Yes 5.3%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?

PM $1.9K
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?Yes 41.5%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?Yes 22%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?Yes 20%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 9, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?

PM $3.3K
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?Yes 35%
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?Yes 31%
Will 210 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?Yes 25%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 9, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

K 1.8K contracts
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?Yes 90.5%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?Yes 4.5%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?Yes 3.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 2, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win in 2026?

K 2.0K contracts
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?Yes 67.5%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?Yes 50%
Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?Yes 34.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Feb 3, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

PM $30.70M
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes 92.3%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes 89.8%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes 85.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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