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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?

How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?
Vol

PM $645.45

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 12-15 at 31.5%.

Polymarket

  1. 12-1531.5%
  2. 4-724%
  3. 8-1120.5%
  4. 16+11%
  5. <48.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $645.45

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 26, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 1, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?

PM $1.7K
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Yes 42%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Yes 26%
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Yes 18.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?

PM $716.35
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?Yes 38%
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?Yes 35.5%
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?Yes 22%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

PM $5.3K
Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?Yes 73.5%
Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 19-October 25?Yes 13.5%
Will UKMTO publish 12-15 notices between October 19-October 25?Yes 6.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $19.06M · K 10.46M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.8%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.1%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

PM $20.30M · K 3.82M contracts

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Related contracts

PM Yes 13.5%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?

Kalshi: Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Dec 1, 2026)

Related contracts

PM Yes 7.5%Rules differK Yes 6.5%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.8%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?

When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?

PM $27.6K · K 18.7K contracts

Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 38.5%Rules differK Yes 37%

Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by November 30?

Kalshi: Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Dec 1, 2026?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 3.5%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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