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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

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North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between -3.9 and -2 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between -1.9 and -0.1 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	6%

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About This Event

As of Nov 4, 2026 If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between X and Y at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column of the "Total Voted by Party Registration" table on the North Carolina page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting T

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** As of Nov 4, 2026

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between X and Y at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column of the "Total Voted by Party Registration" table on the North Carolina page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting T

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between -3.9 and -2 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between -1.9 and -0.1 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

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KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The v

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The v

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The v

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The v

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North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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