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2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

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2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?	Kalshi	100%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 12% and 16%?	Kalshi	0%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 8% and 12%?	Kalshi	0%

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About This Event

In 2026 If the margin of victory X 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between Y and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received X minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Y if Y wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Y loses. For raw votes:

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the margin of victory X 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between Y and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received X minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Y if Y wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Y loses. For raw votes: 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between 0% and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 12% and 16%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 8% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.6¢No 0.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

If the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between 20% and 24%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. Fo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?

If the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between 24% and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. F

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?

If the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between 16% and 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. Fo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?

If the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between 0% and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?

If the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls between 0% and 8%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/HNbixO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?"></iframe>

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2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

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Events (1)

2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

Markets (7)

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?

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Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 20% and 24%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 24% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 16% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Joe Hathaway in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be between 0% and 8%?

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