Trump's RCP approval average on Nov 1, 2026?
K 156.9K contracts
1
9
Trump's RCP approval average on Nov 1, 2026?
K 156.9K contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 38.6% at 39.5%.
Kalshi
- 38.6%39.5%
- Above 38.7%24.5%
- 38.7%18.5%
- 38.5%10.5%
- 38.4%2.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 156.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 1, 2026 If Trump's RCP approval average is X Y at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T18:00:05.888Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether Trump's RCP approval average will meet a specific value at a set time. Its rule states that "If Trump's RCP approval average is X Y at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" and that the "Approve" value in the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" "will be the sole resolution source" [1]. Each saved market tests a different threshold, such as "exactly 38.4," "exactly 38.5," or "above 38.7." Only the Kalshi source is supplied, so these are the only contract wordings in this sample.
Two timing details matter. The rule refers to 1:00 PM ET on November 1, 2026, while each market's listed end date is 2026-11-01T17:59:00Z [1]. The source excerpt also says the listed end time was "not supplied," so the evidence does not show how the platform reconciles these. Readers should check the full contract text before relying on either time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-31T18:00:05Z, and the record was retrieved at 18:48:01Z the same day. These are snapshots of quoted prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The nine saved markets are all of the markets in this event's record, and the sample is not marked as partial. The sample warning still notes that this does not prove the provider lists every possible outcome.
Within this event, the highest Yes price is for "exactly 38.4" at 0.52, followed by "exactly 38.5" at 0.135 and "above 38.7" at 0.12. The lowest is "exactly 38.1" at 0.02 [1]. Each market is a separate contract with its own wording, so these prices should not be averaged or summed into a single view of the approval average. "Above 38.7" and "exactly 38.7" are also different contracts, even though both show a Yes price of 0.045 in the case of "exactly 38.7" and 0.12 for "above 38.7."
Trading volume is not included in this view, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show news or the number of traders behind them. It also does not include the RCP table's current value, any historical accuracy of similar contracts, or any event beyond the November 1, 2026 close described in the rule. Because the snapshot is from October 31, 2026, prices may have changed by the time a reader views this record.
References
- Kalshi: Trump's RCP approval average on Nov 1, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T18:00:05.888Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Donald Trump's RCP approval average will equal or pass a stated threshold at a specific time on November 1, 2026. The market is hosted on Kalshi, and the provider's rules name one resolution source: the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval." The rules say a market resolves to Yes if that value is the stated number at exactly 1:00 PM ET on November 1, 2026 [1]. The contract therefore measures a single published figure at a single moment, not the average over a period. Each threshold in the sample is a separate yes or no question about that same figure. Some are phrased as "exactly" a value, such as 38.4 or 38.5, while others are phrased as "above" or "below" a value [1]. Because the resolution depends on one table cell, what matters is what that cell shows at the stated time, not what other polls or averages show. The provider lists the event as active and does not supply a listed end time in the material retrieved [1]. The saved market records carry a timestamp of 17:59 UTC on November 1, 2026. That timestamp is a field in the saved data and should be checked against the provider's rules, which specify the 1:00 PM ET measurement time. A date appearing in contract rules is not an announced event date. The saved sample includes nine markets from this one provider event, and all nine are included in the sample. The sample is not a full list of every possible outcome, and it does not rank or compare outcomes across different provider events. Prices in the sample are snapshots taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract gives a defined, checkable target: one cell in one published table at one stated time [1]. Traders and readers who follow approval figures can use it to see how a specific number compares with thresholds set a few points apart. Because the rules name one resolution source, a reader should look at that source's definition, not at general news coverage of Trump's approval, to understand how the market will be settled [1]. The contract also falls within a period when the 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, which is a separate event from the approval reading and does not determine it [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly determines whether this market resolves Yes?
The rules use the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval." That value at exactly 1:00 PM ET on November 1, 2026, is the sole resolution source for the event [1].
Why are there several markets for the same event?
The saved event includes separate markets with different thresholds, some phrased as exact values and others as above or below a value [1]. Each one is its own yes or no question about the same underlying figure.
Does a price of Yes or No show the probability that the approval average will reach that value?
No. The prices are snapshots taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities, so they should not be read as the likelihood of any outcome.
Is this sample a complete list of possible outcomes?
No. All saved markets for this provider event are included, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
