Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary? | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	33%
Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	23%
Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	16%
Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	12%
Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	7%
Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?	Kalshi	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On May 19, 2026

If the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be above 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/JexIvz" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Markets (10)

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 15% and 20%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget