If the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Thomas Massie minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Thomas Massie minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Thomas Massie if Thomas Massie wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Thomas Massie loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Thomas Massie minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Thomas Massie wins, or the electoral votes received by Thomas Massie minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Thomas Massie does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Thomas Massie runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Thomas Massie will be summed. If Thomas Massie wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Thomas Massie loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Thomas Massie ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Thomas Massie is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.