$778.20K
1
7
$778.20K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the r
Prediction markets on Polymarket are currently pricing in a 63% probability that there will be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30, 2026. This price indicates the market sees the outcome as more likely than not, but with significant remaining uncertainty. The specific market for "8 or more" is the most actively traded contract within a suite of seven markets covering different totals, with a combined trading volume of $778,000 providing moderate liquidity for this niche.
The elevated probability for a higher count is primarily driven by historical seismic baselines. The United States Geological Survey notes that the Earth averages about 15 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) annually, or roughly 7-8 per six-month period. The market's 63% odds for hitting at least 8 aligns closely with this long-term statistical frequency, suggesting traders are betting on a return to or slight exceedance of the mean. Furthermore, the market timeframe encompasses over six months, a sufficient window for the inherently clustered nature of global seismic activity to produce several significant events.
A secondary factor is the absence of a major, predictive "seismic gap" or specific forecast for global quiescence in the coming months. In the absence of a scientific consensus pointing toward an unusually quiet period, the market default leans toward the historical average, which this threshold represents.
The odds are most sensitive to real-time seismic activity. A cluster of major earthquakes early in the contract period, especially in densely instrumented and reported regions, would rapidly increase confidence in reaching 8 or more, potentially pushing probabilities above 80%. Conversely, an unusually quiet start to 2026 could see the "NO" share price rise as the required pace accelerates.
Long-lead climate phenomena like a strong El Niño, which can subtly influence seismic and volcanic activity through changes in crustal loading, present a low-probability but high-impact risk to the consensus. More directly, the resolution depends entirely on the USGS catalog, and any rare controversy in magnitude determination for a borderline event (e.g., a 6.9 vs. 7.0) could become a focal point for market volatility as the resolution date approaches.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the total number of major earthquakes, specifically those registering a magnitude of 7.0 or higher on the Richter scale, that will occur globally within a defined seven-month period from December 4, 2025, to June 30, 2026. The resolution is based on data from the authoritative United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, which catalogs all significant seismic events. Magnitude 7.0 earthquakes are classified as 'major' and are capable of causing severe damage over large areas, making their frequency a subject of intense scientific and public interest. The market essentially creates a collective forecast on global seismic activity for this specific timeframe. Interest in this topic stems from multiple areas. For scientists and disaster preparedness agencies, it represents a testbed for seismic forecasting models and an indicator of global tectonic stress. For the general public and policymakers, the outcome has direct implications for understanding planetary risk and the potential for catastrophic natural disasters. The period from late 2025 to mid-2026 is also noteworthy as it may be influenced by long-term seismic cycles and recent patterns of heightened activity in volatile regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Traders and observers are thus attempting to quantify a fundamental geophysical process, blending data analysis with an understanding of historical seismicity.
Historically, the global average for earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater is approximately 15 per year, or about 1.25 per month, though this exhibits significant annual variability. For instance, 2011 was an exceptionally active year with 19 such events, driven largely by the magnitude 9.1 Tohoku earthquake in Japan and its aftershocks. In contrast, some years see as few as 6 to 8 major quakes. This variability is tied to the complex, clustered nature of global seismicity, where a single large event can trigger a sequence of other major quakes along distant fault lines through dynamic stress transfer. The seven-month window of this market, covering late 2025 to mid-2026, will be measured against these historical baselines. Precedents for similar forecasting exercises exist in the scientific community, such as the ongoing Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) experiments, which rigorously test statistical and physical models for forecasting earthquake rates. The period from December to June also encompasses seasonal variations studied by some seismologists, who investigate potential correlations between seismic activity and other Earth system processes like hydrological loading. Understanding this historical arc of global seismicity, from the relatively quiet period of the early 2000s to the more active 2010s, is crucial for contextualizing any prediction.
The frequency of major earthquakes has profound implications for global risk management and economic stability. A cluster of high-magnitude events within this seven-month window could result in billions of dollars in damage, significant loss of life, and major humanitarian crises, straining international disaster response resources. Reinsurance companies and catastrophe bond markets closely monitor these statistics to price global risk portfolios, meaning the market's forecast has tangible financial consequences. For governments and urban planners in seismically active regions, an accurate forecast, even probabilistic, informs the urgency of building code enforcement, infrastructure retrofit programs, and public preparedness campaigns. Beyond immediate impacts, a sustained deviation from the long-term average rate of major earthquakes could signal a shift in global tectonic stress regimes, prompting new scientific research into the drivers of planetary-scale seismicity. This topic matters because it quantifies a fundamental planetary process that directly affects human safety, economic security, and our scientific understanding of Earth.
As of late 2024, global seismicity continues to follow long-term patterns with intermittent major events. The most recent significant earthquakes above magnitude 7.0 are cataloged by the USGS and provide the immediate backdrop for trend analysis leading into the 2025-2026 market period. Scientific discussion currently focuses on several seismic gaps, regions along major fault lines that have not ruptured in a significant earthquake for an unusually long time relative to their historical cycle, such as parts of the Cascadia Subduction Zone or the Mentawai segment off Sumatra. Activity in these gaps could significantly influence the count. Furthermore, research into remote triggering and earthquake interactions remains highly active, with new studies continually refining our understanding of how one major quake might increase the short-term probability of others elsewhere on the globe.
The USGS calculates magnitude using data from its global network of seismometers. For significant events, they analyze seismic waveforms to determine multiple magnitude types, such as moment magnitude (Mw), which is the standard for large earthquakes. An event is confirmed and posted after automated detection and subsequent review by seismologists.
Each whole number increase on the moment magnitude scale represents a roughly 32-fold increase in energy release. Therefore, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake releases about 32 times more energy than a magnitude 7.0 quake, and about 1,000 times more energy than a magnitude 6.0 quake.
No, reliable short-term prediction of the exact time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake is not currently possible with scientific certainty. This market instead forecasts a statistical count over a broad period and area, which is a different and more achievable type of probabilistic forecast based on historical rates.
Over 90% of major earthquakes occur along the tectonic plate boundaries of the Pacific Ring of Fire. Other significant zones include the Alpide belt (extending from the Mediterranean to Southeast Asia) and major transform boundaries like the San Andreas Fault system.
The market resolves specifically on events of magnitude 7.0 or higher. A swarm of magnitude 6.9 earthquakes, no matter how numerous, would not count toward the total. The USGS's precise magnitude determination is final for resolution.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 63% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 1% |
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