This prediction market addresses whether Alexandre de Moraes will leave his position as a Justice on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) before the end of 2026. Alexandre de Moraes is one of the most prominent and controversial figures in Brazilian politics. Appointed to the court in 2017 by then-President Michel Temer, he has become a central figure in investigations into anti-democratic acts, including those related to the January 8, 2023, attacks on government buildings in Brasília. As the head of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) from 2022 to 2024, he also oversaw the contentious 2022 presidential election. His aggressive use of judicial power, including ordering social media platform bans and authorizing arrests of individuals accused of spreading misinformation, has made him a polarizing symbol of judicial activism. Interest in this market stems from ongoing political tensions in Brazil, where former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies have repeatedly criticized Moraes and the STF. Some legislators have even proposed impeachment proceedings against him, though such efforts face significant constitutional hurdles. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if Moraes ceases to be a Justice for any period before December 31, 2026, including via resignation, removal, or death. An announcement of his resignation or removal would trigger immediate resolution.

Historical Context

The Brazilian Supreme Federal Court has 11 justices appointed for life, with mandatory retirement at age 75. Justices are nominated by the president and approved by the Senate. Historically, removals are exceptionally rare. The last justice to leave the court before retirement via an impeachment process was Francisco Rezek in 1992, who resigned preemptively amid proceedings. The court's political role expanded significantly after Operation Car Wash, and tensions with the executive and legislative branches intensified during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022). In 2019, Bolsonaro publicly feuded with Justice Celso de Mello, and in 2021, he threatened to not comply with STF rulings. This established a pattern of confrontation that Alexandre de Moraes inherited and amplified. Moraes was initially appointed by center-right President Michel Temer, but his jurisprudence shifted to become a central figure in defending democratic institutions from what he termed 'anti-democratic acts.' His appointment as electoral court president in 2022 placed him in charge of an election where Bolsonaro repeatedly alleged potential fraud without evidence, setting the stage for the post-election crisis.

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