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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
Vol

PM $257.1K · K 17.9K contracts

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Events

3

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Markets

6

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 6.5% on Polymarket, and the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 47.5%.

Polymarket

  1. Yes6.5%

Kalshi

  1. Before Jan 1, 202847.5%
  2. Before Jul 1, 202728.5%
  3. Before Jan 1, 20278.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $257.1K · K 17.9K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

6

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Alexandre de Moraes vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

PM $34.8K
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?Yes 72.5%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by October 31?Yes 31%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

K 3.92M contracts
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 45.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 39%
Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 18%
+32 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

K 757.8K contracts
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?Yes 12.5%
Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?Yes 12%
Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?Yes 9%
+38 moreNext deadline Feb 3, 2029 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

K 218.0K contracts
Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?Yes 45%
Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?Yes 19.5%
Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?Yes 17.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 20, 2029 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

PM $6.6K
Will James Ho be the next Supreme Court nominee?Yes 40.5%
Will Gregory Katsas be the next Supreme Court nominee?Yes 22.6%
Will Ted Cruz be the next Supreme Court nominee?Yes 19.9%
+8 moreNext deadline Jan 20, 2029 UTC
KalshiPolitics
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?

What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?

K 57.6K contracts
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? (Roybal v. Griffith)Yes 61.5%
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? (Republican National Committee v. Eakin)Yes 11%
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? (Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists)Yes 7.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.