Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

Total Volume

$2.00

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Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

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$2.00

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	39%
Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	24%
Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$2.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Venezuela If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition statement, or an OPEC+ policy change without an OPEC withdrawal does NOT qualify. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties, accords, or binding agreemen

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Venezuela exit OPEC?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Venezuela

If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition statement, or an OPEC+ policy change without an OPEC withdrawal does NOT qualify. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties, accords, or binding agreemen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition st"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

Volume$2.00

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition st

KALSHI

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?

If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition st

KALSHI

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?

If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition st

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Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

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Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

Markets (3)

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will Venezuela exit OPEC?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?

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