Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026

Total Volume

$269.51

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Total Fed dissents in 2026

Vol

$269.51

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $269.51

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $269.51

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7	Kalshi	31%
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8	Kalshi	25%
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9	Kalshi	24%
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10	Kalshi	11%
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12	Kalshi	5%
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 11	Kalshi	5%
Total Fed dissents in 2026: at least 13	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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31%

Top Probability

$269.51

Volume

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About This Event

2026 If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly X the market resolves to Yes. Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listing. Through September 25, 2026, official Fed statements record 7 qualifying dissents, January 2, March 1, April 1, June 0, July 3, September 0. April’s three additional dissents concerned statement language alone a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Total Fed dissents in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly X the market resolves to Yes. Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listing. Through September 25, 2026, official Fed statements record 7 qualifying dissents, January 2, March 1, April 1, June 0, July 3, September 0. April’s three additional dissents concerned statement language alone a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is at least 13, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $270
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Total Fed dissents in 2026: at least 13
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 11
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $29
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026

Volume$269.51

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly 7, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listing

KALSHI

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly 8, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listing

KALSHI

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly 9, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listing

KALSHI

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly 10, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listin

KALSHI

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET is exactly 12, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Counts all qualifying votes cast January 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive, in ET, including votes cast before listin

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Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

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Events (1)

Total Fed dissents in 2026

Markets (7)

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12

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Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

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Total Fed dissents in 2026

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 7

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 8

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12

Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12

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