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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

Name: Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
End: 2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.28K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

Vol

$1.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	55%
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	41%
Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	4%
Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	3%
Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	2%
Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	2%
Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$1.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by Dec

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 7, 2026 (120 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by Dec

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appoint"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $132.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $308
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $97
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $298
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $298
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics