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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Name: Speaker of the House after the midterms?
End: 2027-01-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.49K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Vol

$1.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	85%
Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	28%
Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	18%
Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	7%
Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	5%
Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$1.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Speaker of the House after the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 3, 2027 (177 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Uni"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $88
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 18.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 28.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics