California governor primary: 3rd place | PredictPedia

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11 markets tracked

Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	27%
Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	23%
Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	12%
Will Matt Mahan finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	12%
Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	10%
Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	6%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	6%
Will Eric Swalwell finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	4%
Will Ché Ahn finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Butch Ware finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Alex Padilla finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California governor primary: 3rd place
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 2, 2026

If X finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order, runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place, For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Xavier Becerra finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For ranke"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Matt Mahan finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Eric Swalwell finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ché Ahn finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Butch Ware finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Alex Padilla finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

9¢

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California governor primary: 3rd place

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Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

California governor primary: 3rd place

Markets (11)

Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Matt Mahan finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Matt Mahan finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California governor primary: 3rd place

Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Katie Porter finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Steve Hilton finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Matt Mahan finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Matt Mahan finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

Related News & Context

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