Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Total Volume

$6.87K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Vol

$6.87K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.87K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.87K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?	Kalshi	40%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?	Kalshi	24%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?	Kalshi	21%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?	Kalshi	21%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?	Kalshi	14%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.50?	Kalshi	11%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.70?	Kalshi	9%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.30?	Kalshi	9%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.10?	Kalshi	4%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $3.90?	Kalshi	4%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $3.70?	Kalshi	2%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $3.50?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$6.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below X at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the applicable market may close and resolve to Yes early. This market will close and expire early if AAA publishes a national average diesel price below the applicable strike.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below X at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the applicable market may close and resolve to Yes early. This market will close and expire early if AAA publishes a national average diesel price below the applicable strike.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.70, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $165
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $61
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $213
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.70?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $221
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $771
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.30?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $613
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.10?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $3.90?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $3.70?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $644
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $3.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Volume$6.87K

Markets12

12 of 12

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.70, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.50, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.10, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.30, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $4.90, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

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Average Yes Price

13¢

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How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

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Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

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Events (1)

How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Markets (12)

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?

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Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.70?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.50?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.10?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $5.30?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?

Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 go below $4.90?

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