Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Total Volume

$88.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Vol

$88.55K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $88.55K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $88.55K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?	Kalshi	54%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?	Kalshi	46%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?	Kalshi	44%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?	Kalshi	23%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?	Kalshi	23%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.60?	Kalshi	20%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.40?	Kalshi	20%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $8.00?	Kalshi	13%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $8.40?	Kalshi	11%
Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $8.20?	Kalshi	9%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $8.60?	Kalshi	6%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $9.00?	Kalshi	5%
Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $8.80?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$88.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above X at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the applicable market may close and resolve to Yes early. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above X at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the applicable market may close and resolve to Yes early. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above $9.00, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $88.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $9.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $8.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $770
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $8.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the AAA national average price for diesel in 2026 be above $8.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $8.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $8.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $17.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Volume$88.55K

Markets13

13 of 13

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above $6.60, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above $6.80, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above $7.00, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above $7.80, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

KALSHI

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?

If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is above $7.20, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the

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21¢

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How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

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Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Markets (13)

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?

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Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will US diesel prices get in 2026?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.60?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $6.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.00?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.80?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?

Will the national average price for diesel in 2026 go above $7.20?

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