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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Name: FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.19K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Vol

$4.19K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.19K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.19K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	46%
Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	46%
Will Maisha Williams be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	7%
Will Mark Douglas be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	6%
Will Luther Campbell be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	5%
Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	2%
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$4.19K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 18, 2026 (39 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.



**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is annou"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $747
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mark Douglas be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $435
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Luther Campbell be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $226
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $476
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Maisha Williams be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $261
  DATA: [Yes: 7.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics