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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Name: 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
End: 2027-04-17T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.76K

Events

Markets

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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Vol

$15.76K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.76K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.76K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

46 markets tracked

Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(46)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	89%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	89%
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	81%
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	74%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	72%
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	69%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	68%
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	64%
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	57%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	51%
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	48%
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	48%
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	43%
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	42%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	42%
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	37%
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	36%
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	34%
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	28%
Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	21%
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	21%
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	18%
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	16%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	16%
Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	15%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	14%
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	13%
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	13%
Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	12%
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	12%
Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	12%
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	11%
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	11%
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	9%
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	9%
Will Manuel Valls be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	8%
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	8%
Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	8%
Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	7%
Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	7%
Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$15.76K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate lis

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 17, 2027 (281 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate lis

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $287.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $258
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $375
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Delphine Batho be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $903
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $381
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Manuel Valls be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $136
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $293
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $951
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $90
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $110
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $634
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $858
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $273
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $321
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $61
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $674
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $452
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $434
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $806
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $61
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $304
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $58
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $446
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $692
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $226
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $428
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $71
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $740
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $465
  DATA: [Yes: 14.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.3% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $138
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $11
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2027): Vol $661
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics