Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Guatemalan presidential election winner?

Total Volume

$95.19

Events

Markets

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Guatemalan presidential election winner?

Vol

$95.19

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $95.19

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $95.19

100%

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8 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	13%
Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	10%
Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	6%
Will Zury Ríos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Armando Castillo win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Luis Aguirre win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

18%

Top Probability

$95.19

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guatemalan presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Zury Ríos wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $95
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Zury Ríos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Luis Aguirre win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Armando Castillo win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 26, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Guatemalan presidential election winner?

Volume$95.19

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

If Carlos Pineda wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.

KALSHI

Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

If Roberto Arzú wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.

KALSHI

Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

If Sandra Torres wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.

KALSHI

Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

If Neto Bran wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See

KALSHI

Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

If Nery Ramos wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the winner is the candidate elected in the runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. Se

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9¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/5lK7_t" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Guatemalan presidential election winner?"></iframe>

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Guatemalan presidential election winner?

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Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Guatemalan presidential election winner?

Markets (8)

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Guatemalan presidential election winner?

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election?

Related News & Context

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