Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

In what year will the next UK general election be held?

Total Volume

$3.06K

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In what year will the next UK general election be held?

Vol

$3.06K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.06K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.06K

100%

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4 markets tracked

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?	Kalshi	52%
Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?	Kalshi	30%
Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?	Kalshi	16%
Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

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$3.06K

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2030 If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that X was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market's year is determined by the official polling day that actually occurs, not an announced or scheduled date that is later changed. If the official polling day for the next UK gener

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** In what year will the next UK general election be held?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2030

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that X was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market's year is determined by the official polling day that actually occurs, not an announced or scheduled date that is later changed. If the official polling day for the next UK gener

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Seconda"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $209
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

In what year will the next UK general election be held?

Volume$3.06K

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Seconda

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Seconda

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Seconda

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes. Seconda

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In what year will the next UK general election be held?

In what year will the next UK general election be held?

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Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

In what year will the next UK general election be held?

Markets (4)

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

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Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

In what year will the next UK general election be held?

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2028 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

Will it be confirmed that 2026 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

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